CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2013-03-15T06:54:00-CME-001)

(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Dicussion and 3-Day Forecast below)
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Summary:
v ~ 1399 km/s 
arrival estimates: 2013-03-16 1800-2100UT and Late on 16 Mar to early on 17 Mar
Kp: Late on day 1 to early on day 2 (17 Mar) the 15 March CME is expected to arrive bringing minor storm conditions (NOAA Scale G1) which are predicted to increase to major storm (NOAA Scale G2) conditions with severe storm (NOAA Scale G3) possible at high latitudes. 
Detail:
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Issued: 2013 Mar 16 1230 UTC
NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 16-Mar 18 2013
 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar 18
00-03UT 3 6 (G2) 4 
03-06UT 3 6 (G2) 4 
06-09UT 3 5 (G1) 3 
09-12UT 2 4 3 
12-15UT 2 4 2 
15-18UT 2 3 2 
18-21UT 3 3 2 
21-00UT 4 3 2 
Rationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to
unsettled for the majority of day 1 (16 Mar). Late on day 1 to early on
day 2 (17 Mar) the 15 March CME is expected to arrive bringing minor
storm conditions (NOAA Scale G1) which are predicted to increase to
major storm (NOAA Scale G2) conditions with severe storm (NOAA Scale G3)
possible at high latitudes. By day 3 (18 Mar), conditions are expected
to be at quiet to active levels as CME effects wane.
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Issued: 2013 Mar 16 1230 UTC
Product: Forecast Discussion
Geospace.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled for
the majority of day 1 (16 Mar). Late on day 1 to early on day 2 (17
Mar) the 15 March CME is expected to arrive bringing minor storm
conditions (NOAA Scale G1) which are predicted to increase to major
storm (NOAA Scale G2) conditions with severe storm (NOAA Scale G3)
possible at high latitudes. By day 3 (18 Mar), conditions are expected
to be at quiet to active levels as CME effects wane.
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Issued: 2013 Mar 15 1230 UTC
Product: Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was moderate. Minor radio blackout (R1) conditions were
observed. A long duration M1/1f flare occurred at 15/0658 UTC from the
vicinity of Regions 1696 (N05W16, Eai/beta-gamma) and 1692 (N09E02,
Hsx/alpha). Images from the GONG H-Alpha network monitor show a
filament between these two regions disappearing during that time. The
flare was accompanied by a tenflare (150 pfu). At 15/0712 UTC, imagery
from the SOHO/LASCO coronagraph showed an asymmetrical full halo CME. 
This CME was also visible in STEREO-A COR2 imagery at 15/0712 UTC. A
preliminary speed estimate of 1399 km/s was obtained using a combination
of STEREO and SOHO coronagraph imagery (geometric localization). For
comparison, a speed of 807 km/s was obtained using simple plane of sky
measurements from two LASCO C3 images.
Geospace.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to rise to active to minor storm
periods during the day and will likely persist into the early part of
day 2 (16 Mar). As noted in the solar wind forecast, a coarse estimate
of arrival is around 16/1800-2100 UTC, suggesting prolonged active
conditions at a minimum and the potential for minor to major storm
levels. A chance for isolated minor storm (G1) conditions has been
added to the day 2 (16 Mar) forecast. Refined estimates of the arrival
timing and magnitude of today's CME will be possible once additional
LASCO imagery is received (after 15/1405 UTC) and output from the
WSA-Enlil model is available.
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Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2013 Mar 15 1230 UTC
NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 15-Mar 17 2013
 Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar 17
00-03UT 0 5 (G1) 5 (G1)
03-06UT 3 4 4 
06-09UT 2 3 3 
09-12UT 2 3 3 
12-15UT 5 (G1) 2 3 
15-18UT 2 3 2 
18-21UT 2 4 2 
21-00UT 4 5 (G1) 2 
Rationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to rise to active to minor
storm periods during the day and will likely persist into the early part
of day 2 (16 Mar) as a result of the 12 Mar coronal mass ejection (CME).
An estimate arrival of the CME associated with today's long duration M1
flare is around 16/1800-2100 UTC, suggesting prolonged active conditions
at a minimum, and the potential for minor to major storm levels. A
chance for isolated minor storm (G1) conditions has been added to the
day 2 (16 Mar) forecast.

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